As a business with a team that have been in the renewable energy sector for decades, we have seen firsthand how quickly the solar market can shift. Pricing, availability and supply chain stability have never been static, but this upcoming 2026 period is shaping up to be particularly important for organisations considering solar PV.
We want to share information today about 2026 solar PV pricing, explaining a major upcoming change affecting global module costs and outlining why informed, timely decision-making will be critical for businesses seeking to secure value and certainty. Our role has always been to educate first, sell second. That approach is even more important when price volatility is expected. By understanding what is coming and how it may affect your project timelines, you can take control rather than react later under pressure.
Why 2026 solar PV pricing is already on the agenda
Solar PV pricing is influenced by long-term procurement planning, manufacturing capacity and international policy decisions made years in advance. Waiting until price changes are fully reflected in the market often means paying more or facing constrained supply.
Over the past few years, businesses have already experienced how quickly conditions can change. Energy prices have been volatile. Raw material costs have risen. Supply chains have tightened and then loosened again. Solar PV has remained a highly attractive investment, but pricing has not followed a simple downward trend.
Looking ahead, 2026 solar PV pricing is expected to be influenced by a combination of policy changes in China, rising material costs and ongoing global demand for clean energy technologies. Understanding these factors now allows businesses to plan realistically for the upcoming year.
China’s VAT export refund change is coming
One of the most significant developments affecting 2026 solar PV pricing is China’s recent announcement that it will cancel its VAT export refund on solar PV modules. From 1st April 2026, the VAT export rebate will reduce from 9% to 0%, impacting global pricing dramatically.
China dominates global PV module manufacturing (as of 2025, China holds over 80% of the global solar PV manufacturing capacity). As such, a large proportion of the modules installed across the UK and Europe originates from Chinese factories, either directly or through global suppliers whose pricing is anchored to Chinese production costs.
Removing the VAT export refund effectively increases the cost base for manufacturers. In most cases, this increase will be passed down the supply chain. For UK businesses, that means higher module prices embedded within project costs during 2026 and beyond.
Rising raw material and component costs
The VAT change does not exist in isolation. It comes at a time when several key inputs to solar PV manufacturing are already under pressure. Polysilicon prices, aluminium frames, glass and electronic components have all experienced fluctuations over recent years. While periods of oversupply have temporarily eased pricing, the long-term trend remains sensitive to geopolitical tension, energy costs and industrial policy.
In addition, silver prices have been rising. Silver is a critical material used in PV cell manufacturing, and even small increases can have a noticeable impact when scaled across large production volumes. When these factors combine with the removal of the VAT export rebate, the risk of upward pressure on 2026 solar PV pricing becomes very real.
What this means for commercial solar projects
For businesses planning commercial solar installations, these changes affect more than module prices. Higher module costs influence overall system pricing, internal rates of return and payback periods. While solar PV remains a strong investment, assumptions made today about future pricing may extend payback periods.
Projects that can move quickly, secure equipment early and lock in pricing are likely to be better insulated from these changes. Conversely, projects that are delayed or sit in planning without a clear procurement strategy may face cost increases that were entirely avoidable. This is where early engagement and realistic timelines become essential.
Our approach to managing 2026 solar PV pricing risk
We have always believed that procurement is not a back-office function. That is why we have a dedicated procurement professional at Harvest Green Developments whose sole focus is to optimise pricing, manage supplier relationships, and anticipate market shifts on behalf of our clients.
Our procurement strategy is built on three principles:
1. Market intelligence
We actively track supplier announcements, manufacturing trends and policy changes, including developments like the Chinese VAT export refund removal. This allows us to give clients informed guidance rather than reactive updates at the earliest stage possible.
2. Timing matters as much as technology
We educate clients on when to move, not just what to install. In the context of upcoming 2026 solar PV pricing, that may mean advising businesses to progress projects sooner where feasible, or at least budget conservatively for future increases.
3. Transparent pricing conversations
If pricing is expected to change, we say so. If quotes need to reflect upcoming cost pressures, we explain why. This transparency helps clients make confident decisions rather than feeling surprised later in the process.
Acting sooner rather than later
One of the key messages we are sharing with clients right now is simple: if your project can move, it may be worth moving sooner.
Securing module supply before April 2026 could help avoid price increases linked to the VAT change. Even for projects completing later, early procurement strategies may offer cost certainty that would otherwise be lost.
This does not mean rushing poorly planned projects. It means aligning technical design, approvals and procurement in a way that protects long-term value. For clients whose projects cannot move quickly, our role is still to educate. Knowing that 2026 solar PV pricing is likely to be higher allows for better budgeting and more realistic board-level discussions today, and if we’re not directly working together, keeping an eye on our blog is a great way to stay informed on the industry changes.
Energy price volatility strengthens the case for solar
It is also important to consider these changes in the wider energy context. Grid electricity prices remain volatile and difficult to forecast. Many businesses have experienced sharp increases with little warning over the past few years.
Against this backdrop, solar PV continues to offer a hedge. While upfront costs may fluctuate, the long-term benefit of generating your own power remains compelling. When energy prices rise, the value of each kilowatt-hour generated on-site increases. Even if module prices are higher in 2026, the strategic value of energy independence will still be higher still.
Educating clients is central to our role in the industry
Our commitment has always been to education-led engagement. We do not believe in pushing solutions without context.
That means explaining how changes like the VAT export refund removal affect pricing. It means discussing risks honestly. It also means helping clients align their sustainability goals with sound financial planning. As more information is confirmed by suppliers, including detailed pricing impacts, we will continue to share this openly with clients. Our job is to ensure there are no surprises.
Preparing now for 2026 solar PV pricing
The businesses that benefit most from solar are often those that plan early. With 2026 solar PV pricing likely to be influenced by policy, material costs and supply chain dynamics, early awareness becomes a competitive advantage. Whether your organisation is ready to build now or simply exploring options, understanding what lies ahead allows you to make better decisions.
We see this moment not as a challenge, but as an opportunity to engage, educate and help businesses act with clarity and confidence. If solar is on your roadmap, now is the right time to talk.
